Underlying causes of child death
Currently, CHERG is working with WHO and UNICEF to develop methodologies and processes to estimate and publish annually the total burden of childhood mortality and causes of death, with first results available in 2009 for the year 2008 and published in 2010. These estimates will include, where the data permit, specific etiologies of diarrhea (e.g. rotavirus) and respiratory disease/meningitis (e.g. pneumococcus or H. influenzae type b.)
To date, CHERG has been able to produce one set of cause-specific mortality estimates for the year 2000 and the resulting distribution of causes has been replicated yearly, with very minor adjustments. This project will develop methods/models that allow for annual updates of under-five causes of death by incorporating information on effects of accelerated child survival interventions, such as accelerated coverage of vaccines, use of bednets, introduction of new vaccines (e.g. Hib, Rotavirus, etc), strengthening of community case management of pneumonia, expansion of newborn care interventions, etc. A second step will involve the validation of the model outputs, requiring strong collaboration with specific programs implementing or scaling-up these interventions in one or two countries.
Methods and Expected Products
Epidemiologists, disease experts and statisticians/modelers make up several working groups that are systematically reviewing epidemiologic studies and other sources of data that have collected information on causes of under-five death. Working groups for diarrhea, pneumonia, malaria, and neonatal causes will identify, review, abstract, and analyze all relevant information, and make the information publicly available and disseminated through various channels. CHERG will work with WHO and UNICEF to publish national estimates of child causes of death for all countries beginning with 2008 and continuing annually.
Liu L, Oza S, Hogan D, Perin J, Rudan I, Lawn JE, Cousens S, Mathers C, Black RE. Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2000-12, with projections to inform post-2015 priorities: an updated systematic analysis. Lancet. 2014 Sept 30. [Epub ahead of print]
Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality: an updated systematic analysis for 2010 with time trends since 2000. Li Liu, Hope L Johnson, Simon Cousens, Jamie Perin, Susana Scott, Joy E Lawn, Igor Rudan, Prof Harry Campbell, Richard Cibulskis, Mengying Li, Colin Mathers, Prof Robert E Black, for the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group of WHO and UNICEF.Li Liu, Hope L Johnson, Simon Cousens, Jamie Perin, Susana Scott, Joy E Lawn, Igor Rudan, Prof Harry Campbell, Richard Cibulskis, Mengying Li, Colin Mathers, Prof Robert E Black, for the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group of WHO and UNICEF. The Lancet, Early Online Publication, 11 May 2012. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60560-1
• CHERG Child Causes of Death Annual Estimates by Country, 2000-2010. (Excel File)
• Study input data for the high mortality verbal autopsy based multi-cause model among children aged 1-59 months (Excel file)
Lanata CF, Fischer-Walker CL, Olascoaga AC, Torres CX, Aryee MJ, Black RE, Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group of the World Health Organization and UNICEF. Global causes of diarrheal disease mortality in children <5 years of age: a systematic review. PLoS One 2013 Sept 4:8(9):e72788. Web appendix of studies
Interim update: Interim estimates of global under-five diarrhea and pneumonia deaths in 2011. Li Liu, Jamie Perin, Christa Fisher-Walker, Robert E. Black.
Fischer Walker CL, Aryee M, Boschi-Pinto C, Black RE. Estimating diarrhea mortality among young children in low and middle-income countries. PLoS One. 2012; 7 (1): e29151.
Nair H, Brooks WA, et al. Global burden of respiratory infections due to seasonal influenza in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet. 2011 Dec 3;378(9807):1917-30.
O’Brien KL, Wolfson LJ, Watt JP, Henkle E, Deloria-Knoll M, McCall N, Lee E, Mulholand K, Levine OS, Cherian T, Hib and Pneumococcal Global Burden of Disease Study Team. Burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumonia in children. Lancet 2009; 374(9693): 893-902.
Theodoratou, Evropi, Jian Shayne F. Zhang, Ivana Kolcic, Andrew M Davis, Sunil Bhopal, Harish Nair, Kit Yee Chan, Li Liu, Hope Johnson, Igor Rudan and Harry Campbell. Estimating pneumonia deaths of post-neonatal children in countries of low or no death certification in 2008. PLoS ONE . 2011; 6(9).
Watt JP, Wolfson LJ, O’Brien KL, Henkle E, Deloria-Knoll M, McCall N, Lee E, Levine OS, Jaijeh R, Mulholland K, Cherian T. Burden of disease caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b in children younger than 5 years: global estimates. Lancet 2009; 374(9693): 903-11.
Newborn survival: a multi-country analysis of a decade of change. Lawn JE, Kinney MV, Black RE, Pitt C, Cousens S, Kerber K, Corbett E, Moran AC, Morrissey CS, Oestergaard MZ. Health Policy Plan. 2012 Jul;27 Suppl 3:iii6-28. doi: 10.1093/heapol/czs053.
Neonatal Mortality Levels for 193 Countries in 2009 with Trends since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of Progress, Projections, and Priorities. Oestergaard MZ, Inoue M, Yoshida S, Mahanani WR, Gore FM, et al. (2011) PLoS Med 8(8): e1001080. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001080
Stillbirths: Where? When? Why? How to make the data count? Lawn, Joy E, Hannah Blencowe, Robert Pattinson, Simon Cousens, Rajesh Kumar, Ibinabo Ibiebele, Jason Gardosi, Louise T Day, Cynthia Stanton (2011). Lancet. 23; 377(9775): 1448-63.
National, regional, and worldwide estimates of stillbirth rates in 2009 with trends since 1995: a systematic analysis. Cousens, Simon, Hannah Blencowe, Cynthia Stanton, Doris Chou, Saifuddin Ahmed, Laura Steinhardt, Andreea A Creanga, Özge Tunçalp, Zohra Patel Balsara, Shivam Gupta, Lale Say, Joy E Lawn (2011). Lancet. 377(9774): 1319-30.
3.6 million neonatal deaths – what is progressing and what is not? Lawn, Joy E, Kate Kerber, Christabel Enweronu-Laryea, Simon Cousens (2010). Semin Perinatol. 34(6): 371-86.
Estimating the distribution of causes of child deaths in high mortality counties with incomplete death certification. Johnson, Hope L, Li Liu, Christa L Fischer Walker, Robert E Black (2010). Int J Epidemiol. 39(4): 1103-14.
Global, regional, and national causes of child mortality in 2008: a systematic analysis.The Lancet (online), 12 May 2010. Robert E Black, Simon Cousens, Hope L Johnson, Joy E Lawn, Igor Rudan, Diego G Bassani, Prabhat Jha, Harry Campbell, Christa Fischer Walker, Richard Cibulskis, Thomas Eisele, Li Liu, Colin Mathers, for the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group of WHO and UNICEF.
Estimating the distribution of causes of death among children age 1–59 months in high-mortality countries with incomplete death certification. Hope L Johnson, Li Liu, Christa Fischer-Walker and Robert E Black International Journal of Epidemiology, Advanced Access: doi:10.1093/ije/dyq074.